Section 125 Campaign Map

What this page is for

The offer brief of 27 October named Section 125 the cold targetable engine because Form 5500 gives headcount, renewal date, carrier and broker per employer. This page tests that claim against the actual files, breaks the market into campaigns the way the pension map does, writes the custom fields and copy each campaign would use, and prices the enrichment per employer so the volume decision is made on numbers.

Decisions this page is built to support

Which campaign goes first and how many employers it holds.
Which fields from the filing carry into the copy, and which need a second source.
What one employer costs to reach, at the observed vendor prices, before any purchase.
How many replies, meetings and signed employers a given daily volume projects, with every rate editable.

What is deliberately not here

No dollar savings figure anywhere. The offer brief conditions every savings claim on the IRS fixed indemnity position (CCA 202323006) clearing in writing.
No sender names, inboxes or domains. The practice has not provisioned any; the plan in numbers takes daily volume as an input.
No contact names. 771 of the A1 direct track rows carry the filing signer's name, which is the only person level field in the data.
Nothing from the pension business. Different filings, different schedules, different buyer.

37,489 employers, each assigned to one campaign

Rows are when the medical policy renews (Schedule A policy end date, or plan year end where there is no medical contract on Schedule A). Columns are participant band. Employers with no medical contract on Schedule A are self funded for major medical and sit in campaign C whatever their quarter.

How the file was cut

Step	Employers
All 2024 plan year filings in the DOL file	226,436
Filings reporting a health benefit (welfare code 4A)	68,533
Single employer (line A code 2), US address, not a final filing, one plan per EIN	58,448
Not collectively bargained	57,569
Insurance named as a funding or benefit arrangement	55,193
100 to 499 participants	37,489

What is above and below the market

Band	Insured, not union	Why it is out
Under 100 participants	3,958	Only trust funded small plans file. The 50 to 99 employee band (133,388 US firms, Census SUSB 2022) is invisible on Form 5500 by design and needs another source.
500 to 999	6,727	A benefits manager owns the decision; different motion, later.
1,000 and above	7,019	Same.

Coverage of the real market

Firm size (Census SUSB 2022)	US firms	On a 2024 filing
50 to 99 employees	133,388	0 by design
100 to 499 employees	93,341	37,489 (40%)
500 and above	21,041	13,746

The gap between 93,341 firms and 37,489 filers is self funded plans, union plans, government and church employers, firms whose plan has under 100 participants despite 100 plus employees, and non filers.

The market from first principles

1. Who can act

A single employer that is not bound by a bargaining agreement can add a supplemental plan under its own cafeteria plan at any time. A multiemployer trust cannot; a bargained plan cannot without the union. So entity code 2 and no bargaining flag define who can say yes.

2. Who is visible

The cafeteria plan never files. The employer's health plan files only at 100 participants and above. Everything the offer brief called the goldmine (renewal date, headcount, carrier, broker) exists for 100 plus and for nobody smaller. That is the whole reason this is a 100 to 499 campaign and not a 50 to 499 one.

3. What size means

The payroll tax effect scales with W-2 headcount below the Social Security wage base. Participants on the filing are the closest public proxy. The 100 to 249 band has 25,438 employers at 161 participants each; one owner usually decides. At 250 to 499 the decision adds a CFO and an HR lead.

4. When they decide

Benefits decisions cluster at renewal. 66% of the market renews in Q4 and the broker places that renewal by October. On 30 October the only employers with an open decision are Q1 renewals (2,478 insured) and, behind them, Q2 (4,218). The Q4 wave is a July to September 2027 campaign.

5. Where the money sits

Employee side savings include state income tax in income tax states and nothing in nine states (TX, FL, TN, WA, NV, SD, WY, AK, NH), which hold 7,384 of the 37,489. Company side FICA is the same everywhere. So the copy splits in two, and the no tax states get the company side version.

6. Who is in the way

41.2% of the market has a consolidator as broker of record (USI, Marsh McLennan, Gallagher, Lockton, Alliant, HUB, OneDigital and others). A consolidator benefits practice either sells a competing product or treats an employer side approach as displacement. Those employers get a broker track, not a cold email.

7. What has changed

Pain shows in the delta between two filings. Matched to 2023: 24.9% changed broker, 14.9% changed carrier, 18.3% lost a tenth of their headcount, 17.0% grew by 15% or more, and 3,583 filed for the first time. Those flags rank the list and write the first line.

8. What it costs to find them

The filing names the employer, not the owner. Each employer needs a domain and two or three named people. At the observed vendor prices that is a known cost per employer, priced below, and it is the only spend between this page and a send list.

The custom fields

Every merge field the copy uses, where it comes from, and whether the employer can be written to without it. Fields from the filing cover 100% of the market unless a coverage figure says otherwise.

Field	From	Coverage	Required
{{firstName}}	Enrichment, the decision maker's first name. Falls back to {{signerName}} where the signer is an officer.	0% today	Every contact
{{companyName}}	Sponsor name as written on the filing, DBA preferred where present.	100%	Every contact
{{renewalMonth}}	Month of the Schedule A policy end date, else plan year end month. The two agree 94% of the time.	100%	Every campaign except C
{{renewalDate}}	Schedule A policy end date, to the day.	75%	Optional; used in email 2
{{headcount}}	Active participants on line 6, rounded to the nearest 10.	100%	Every contact
{{coveredLives}}	Persons covered at year end on the medical contract.	75%	Waiver line only
{{carrier}}	Schedule A carrier on the largest health contract, shortened to the common name.	75%, needs a medical carrier check	Insured campaigns; dropped where the carrier is a voluntary line
{{broker}}	Schedule A Part 1 broker of record, the one paid most.	98%	"Your broker stays" line; the broker track
{{brokerCommission}}	Commissions plus fees paid on the health contract, from Schedule A.	64%	Never in owner copy; one sentence in CFO email 2, dropped where not reported
{{triggerLine}}	Chosen per employer from the strongest flag, table under the campaigns.	100% (plain renewal line as default)	Email 1, both roles
{{senderSig}}	The sender's sign off. The sender changes this and one intro line, nothing else.	Not set	Every email
{{industry}}	NAICS business code on the filing, mapped to a plain name.	99.9%	LinkedIn connect line
{{stateName}}	Sponsor state, spelled out.	100%	Income tax states only
{{fundingType}}	Fully insured, mixed, or self funded from the funding and benefit flags.	100%	Routes to campaign C
{{headcountChange}}	Percent change in participants, 2024 over 2023.	90%	Trigger line where 10% down or 15% up
{{carrierPrior}}	2023 Schedule A carrier, where it differs from 2024.	14.9% flagged	Trigger line
{{brokerPrior}}	2023 broker of record, where it differs from 2024.	24.9% flagged	Trigger line
{{waiverRate}}	One minus covered lives over participants.	15.7% at 25% or more	Trigger line
{{planEffectiveYear}}	Plan effective date on the filing.	100%	Optional
{{signerName}}	Name on the administrator or sponsor signature.	46%	Fallback contact and a verification key for enrichment
{{bookingLink}}	The specialist's calendar.	Not set	Reply templates only; no links in cold emails

Carrier caveat: on some rows the largest Schedule A contract is a voluntary carrier (Continental American, Unimerica, Principal) rather than the medical carrier. A medical carrier list is applied before {{carrier}} is used, and a carrier change on those rows is treated as unknown, not as a trigger.

Pain, ranked and measured

What the owner feels (offer brief, 27 October)

Health benefit cost rising faster than revenue (KFF 2025: average family premium about $26,993, up 6%).
The broker renews, payroll cuts the checks, and nobody works on the 7.65% paid in full every period.
Turnover among hourly staff on a thin benefits package.
Renewal dread, margin squeeze, HR with no bandwidth.

What the filings show (measured on 33,906 matched employers)

Flag	Share	Reads as
Broker of record changed	24.9%	Benefits spend under review right now
Headcount down 10% or more	18.3%	Every fixed benefits dollar heavier
Headcount up 15% or more	17.0%	Payroll tax line growing with hiring
Waiver rate 25% or more	15.7%	Employees cannot afford their share
Carrier changed	14.9%	They just shopped the plan
First filing in 2024	9.6%	Just crossed 100; plan newly public

How the flags rank an employer (the score column)

Component	Points	Component	Points
Carrier changed	20	Income tax state	10
Broker changed	15	Target industry	10
Headcount down 10% or up 15%	15	100 to 249 band	5
Headcount up 5% to 15%	5	Medical contract on Schedule A	5
First filing in 2024	10	Consolidator broker of record	minus 10
Waiver rate 25% or more	10

In A1: 64 employers score 70 or more, 379 score 50 to 69, 1,181 score 30 to 49, 854 under 30. 1,757 carry at least one flag that scores.

Three emails over fifteen days

Day	What
1	Email 1 to the owner or CEO and email 1 to the CFO or controller, separately, same subject. A LinkedIn connect to whoever is active there.
8	Email 2, sent as a reply in the same thread. It reads on its own.
15	Email 3, a reply in the same thread. Then the employer is left alone until there is a new reason to write.

One pass. An employer gets up to three passes a year, at least 60 days apart, each with a new reason. A reply from either person stops everything to that company.

Rules

No links and no attachments in a cold email. The reply templates carry the calendar link.
No dollar figure, no "free", no "recapture" on its own, no guarantee. "May lower payroll tax going forward" is the ceiling until the IRS position clears.
Carrier, broker and renewal month only where the filing gives them; the line drops out cleanly where it does not.
Consolidator broker accounts are never cold emailed before the producer has been written to.
The sender changes one line and the signature. Nothing else in the copy moves between senders.

The emails, campaign by campaign

Eight campaigns. A1 to A3 are insured employers by renewal quarter and go in that order. B1 to B4 are the Q4 wave, cut the way the offer brief defined the ICP. C is self funded. Each campaign uses one of four copy sets; the trigger first line is chosen per employer from the strongest flag.

Trigger first lines (one per employer, highest flag wins)

Flag	First line of email 1
Carrier changed	{{companyName}} moved to {{carrier}} this plan year, so the renewal file is already open.
Broker changed	{{companyName}} changed broker of record on its last filing, which usually means the whole benefits spend is under review.
Headcount down 10% or more	{{companyName}}'s covered headcount came down about {{headcountChange}} percent on the last filing, so every fixed benefits dollar is heavier than it was.
Headcount up 15% or more	{{companyName}} added about {{headcountChange}} percent to its covered headcount last year, and the payroll tax line grew with it.
Waiver rate 25% or more	On {{companyName}}'s last filing roughly a quarter of eligible employees were not on the medical plan.
First filing	{{companyName}} crossed into Form 5500 territory this year, which puts your plan in public view for the first time.
None	{{companyName}}'s {{carrier}} policy year ends in {{renewalMonth}}.

Reply templates

Let's talk

Great. Any time that works here: {{bookingLink}} Fifteen minutes is plenty. Bring whoever runs payroll if you can; the number comes off one register. {{senderSig}}

Our broker handles benefits

They should keep handling them. Nothing about the medical plan or {{broker}}'s role changes; this sits beside it on the payroll side. If it is easier, I will walk {{broker}} through it first and they can bring it to you. {{senderSig}}

Not now / after renewal

Understood. I will check back after {{renewalMonth}}. If the renewal lands harder than expected before then, the door is open. {{senderSig}}

Is this the wellness plan the IRS wrote about?

Fair question, and it is the first thing your CPA would check. The tax treatment of the monthly benefit payment is reviewed in writing before anything is signed, and if your CPA is not satisfied, it does not go in. I can send the plan document and the written position so they can read it first. {{senderSig}}

What it costs to reach them

The filing identifies the employer. Reaching a person needs a domain and two or three named people with verified addresses. Prices below are the vendor's, observed on 25 October 2026 on its pricing page and add on dialog; no purchase has been made and no credit has been spent on this market. Credits per employer come from the 27 October pension run (44 attempts, 28 accepted, 83 credits including discovery).

Search credits per employer Roles tried per employer Accept rate % Price per credit $

Plan or add on	Price	Credits	$ per credit
Starter, monthly (current)	$49	2,000	$0.0245
Growth, monthly	$99	5,000	$0.0198
Pro, monthly	$249	15,000	$0.0166
Add on	$10	500	$0.0200
Add on	$20	1,000	$0.0200
Add on	$36	2,000	$0.0180

Credits remaining on the current plan: 1,772 as of 27 October, 18:52 UTC. A search credit is charged whether or not a person is found; an email credit is charged only on a verified address. Domains are not charged by this vendor but have to exist first; 771 of the A1 direct track rows carry a signer name that can be matched without a search.

The next twelve months, campaign by campaign

Each campaign is worked 60 to 150 days ahead of its renewal quarter. A pass is three emails over fifteen days; a second pass needs a new reason and 60 days. C runs on plan year end and is spread across the year. Months run November 2026 to October 2027.

Passes and reasons

Pass 1, the renewal clock. The copy on this page. Carrier, renewal month and headcount.
Pass 2, the hiring angle, 60 days later: every new W-2 adds to the same payroll tax line.
Pass 3, after renewal: the renewal landed; the payroll side was never on the table. For Q4 employers this is the January to March 2027 window and the only way to touch the 66% before next summer.

Tests and breakouts

One split test at a time. A1 email 1 opener: the trigger line against the plain renewal line, half each, judged on replies, twice as many to win.
Broker track (988 in A1, 15,460 in the market): the producer first; the employer after 60 days of silence.
Said later: one email on the date named, nothing else.
Met, not signed: three emails over six weeks from the specialist, the CPA question answered in writing.
CPA channel: every CPA who reviews a plan document is a referral partner for the rest of their book.

Behind the page

Claims register

Claim in the copy	Source
{{companyName}}'s policy year ends in {{renewalMonth}}	Schedule A policy end date on the 2024 filing, else plan year end. Always "around" or "near"; the 2025 renewal may have moved.
Roughly {{headcount}} covered employees	Line 6 active participants, rounded. Said as "roughly".
Moved to {{carrier}} this plan year	2023 and 2024 Schedule A carrier names differ after normalisation. Dropped where either is a voluntary carrier.
Changed broker of record	2023 and 2024 Schedule A Part 1 top paid broker differ after normalisation.
A Section 125 structure that may lower payroll tax going forward	Offer brief compliance lock, 27 October. No figure, no guarantee, not a refund.
Your plan stays, your broker stays	Offer brief: the supplemental plan sits alongside major medical.
Pre tax elections lower state withholding	Only in the 41 states with wage income tax. Never said to TX, FL, TN, WA, NV, SD, WY, AK, NH.
Your CPA reviews the plan document first	Offer brief: CPA first; if they say no, you do not sign.
Benefits your hourly people use	Offer brief: telemedicine, prescription support, mental health, hospital cash. Said as what is in the plan, not as a retention promise.
66% renew in Q4; 59.5% of the sweet spot in December	Counted. The offer brief's 69% was an estimate.

Sources

DOL EBSA Form 5500 datasets: F_5500, F_SCH_A, F_SCH_A_PART1 for plan years 2023, 2024 and 2025 (partial), "Latest" files dated 25 September 2026, downloaded 30 October 2026.
Census Bureau, SUSB 2022, "U.S. & states, NAICS, detailed employment sizes".
Filing rules: 29 CFR 2520.104-20 (small insured welfare plan exemption), IRS Notice 2002-24 (cafeteria plans do not file).
Offer brief "The Four Offer Practice", 27 October 2026: ICP, pain ranking, compliance floor, CCA 202323006 condition.
Vendor pricing observed 25 October 2026; credit usage from the 27 October run summary.
KFF Employer Health Benefits Survey 2025 for the premium reference, as cited in the offer brief.

Files behind every number

S125-universe-scored.csv, 37,489 rows with flags, score, segment, group
S125-universe-scored-A1-ranked.csv and S125-A1-direct-track-enrichment-input.csv
tam.py, join.py, yoy.py reproduce the counts from the DOL files

Every employer on a Form 5500 health filing is assigned to one of eight campaigns. The messages below are what would go to each.